Rising fuel prices and demand for smaller vehicles are hitting sales of big SUVs and pickup trucks the hardest, and with the segment expected to shrink by about 500,000 units this year the launch of the next-generation Ford F-150 and Dodge Ram pickups couldn’t come at a worse time. Pickup sales are expected to drop to as low as 1.65 million units this year, down from the 2.5 million peaks of 2004 and 2005, but both Ford and Chrysler are relying on the introduction of their new pickups to boost sales and profits.

Both trucks are the best selling vehicles in Ford and Dodge’s respective U.S. lineups, and both carmakers have been counting heavily on the replacements. Research firm J.D. Power projects a mild recovery for the segment next year to about 1.8 million to 1.95 million units, but claims a full turnaround would be at least years away if at all.

Buyers have also been turned off by poor resale values, often owing more on the current truck then it’s actually worth. The market has since seen the percentage of full-sized pickup owners who traded in their trucks for new ones drop from 64% to 53% in May compared with the same month last year, reports Automotive News.

The problem has been exacerbated by new incentive schemes currently being offered, such as Ford’s employee pricing and Dodge’s cash back offers, but it’s not clear what effect the launch of the all-new models later this year will have on sales.